2030 by Dr. Mauro Guillén

Over Thanksgiving break (feels like a long time ago!), I read 2030 by Dr. Mauro Guillén from the Wharton School of Business. I think Guillén is one of the most innovative thinkers in this business world because he looks at business problems from a global lens. I took his Coursera course, called "Global Trends for Business and Society" after which, I just had to read his new book. 

Every time I pick up Guillén, I know I'm going to think about problems differently; he shifts my perspective. In 2030, Guillén focuses on what he calls "lateral thinking." Instead of thinking about problems as a trickle-down effect, he urges readers to see how one facet can relate to multiple problems, therefore, being laterally connected. 

Before reading 2030, I grappled with China's growing influence as an economic superpower. I realized that the problem in my thinking was that I failed to see that this was almost inexorable because of China's massive population. Not only that, but Guillén argues that in the next decade, the markets will considerably shift towards Asian consumer tastes. This arises from the fact that the middle classes in Asia are growing and the population is still relatively young. Naturally, if businesses are to profit, it would be prudent of them to shift their focus to the Asian markets. Perhaps this issue has become particularly prominent because of the US leadership in the last four years. Nonetheless, regardless of the policies Western countries may try to institute to protect commerce and business, a major problem still exists that may hinder all progress: demographic shifts that benefit the Asian market. 

I've also been challenged to think about aging populations. One statistic stuck out to me: the 60+ age group owns 80% of the wealth in the US and 55% globally yet only 1 in 7 companies properly targets this age group. Companies would benefit from creating products for this age group!

What also struck me was the fact that in the US today, there are 120 million people in the middle class – defined as a household making between $30k and $150k per year – and 121 middle people in the combined upper and working classes. There are more people on the extremes than in the middle. This is both an interesting and horrifying number. There seem to be many reasons for this, wealth inequality being one. But another problem is that there are fewer stable, high paying jobs in this country due to the emergence of the sharing economy. Consequently, millennials, defined as people born between 1980 to 1995, are having a hard time getting into the middle class because it's harder to secure those jobs. This is also contributing to the US's shrinking middle class, among other factors like higher divorce rates or putting off rites of passage like marriage. 

This brings me to the final point that really struck me from 2030. And it's that immigrants create an inexplicably positive impact on our economy. Immigrants pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits. That's the common reason I've heard cited before, except it's so much more than that. Immigrants tend to be either high skills or low skills workers, meaning they're filling in the jobs that we need most. They also tend to have more children, keeping our fertility rates up. Compared to their native counterparts, immigrants tend to save more money and aspire to own houses, cars, and get married, all of which benefit the recipient country and its economy. I am curious as to how subsequent decades will be shaped by the behaviors of the children of immigrants. 

I could go on and on about Dr. Guillén's work. He is truly an inspirational writer and thinker. I find myself citing his work even in my classes. I give 2030 five stars. It will truly change the way you think about the world.