"We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction.” -Bill Gates
I first heard that quote a few months ago I believe at debate camp. It’s interesting to think about. I’m still in high school, but sometimes I try to envision my life a decade from now. What I’ll be doing, or more what I would like to be doing and what I would like to be have accomplished. My parents sometimes tell me not to think too far ahead, to focus my energy and concentrate more on what’s in front of me today, what is in my control, and what I can do in the present. But I still like to think ahead of time. To think to what I might be doing a decade from now. For me, it’s not simply thinking too far ahead; it’s motivation.
There are many things that I would like to accomplish between now and a decade, when I’m 25-26. When I was 13, I wrote a post called 23, and in retrospection, I realize how substanceless, convoluted, and abstract my writing was back then. While the syntax is one thing I can criticize, the content, and the goals I had nearly three years ago are so vastly differently from whom I want to be now.
Bill Gates did say that we often overestimate the change that will happen in two years, but I think I’ve underestimated it. My mindset has changed considerably, the books I enjoy reading have changed, my opinions on relaxation have changed, and even my views on family have changed.
While it isn’t written in my poem, I remember in sixth grade I was determined to get a PhD in England. I wanted to be a professor and part-time writer. In seventh grade, my goals changed and I have different aspirations now. I may not end up getting a PhD in England. I might not be a professor either. I’m interested in economics and I actually enjoy living in the US! The image, the vision, of that perfect “ideal” life has evolved with such short notice and it has taken me by surprise.
Gate’s quote refers primarily to technological developments and the evolution of society as a whole. However, since I’ve applied it to how I look at my “ideal” personal life, I would make one minor adjustment for when it comes to humans outlook on their own lives. I’ve met people (I’m one of them myself), who have outlined big and ambiguous plans, stating they want to do this in life, travel here and there as adults, and live in mansions, marry this type of perfect spouse, have this many kids, have these degrees, have this many pets etc. in 10 years. The truth is, through observation, I’ve noticed when we think about our own lives, we exaggerate what we want and the limitations of what is achievable. We set, sometimes unrealistic, expectations because we want to live this perfect life that we’ve crafted in our brains.
We gather information. We see things and read things in books and news. Some of this makes us go, uhh, I hope that won’t be me, and other things make us go, wow, I want that too! As we’re collecting this information, that’s when we start to form these imaginary lives we would like to have. I believe imagination does wonders and for me, it affects me, as motivation but also as a burden of pressure.
That minor adjustment I was talking about to Gate’s quote when referring to each individual’s hopes and aspirations is this:
"We always underestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and overestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”
I think big about how I want my life to look in the far future. I think about where I want to live, I think about what I want my family to look like, I think about what I want to do for work. However, I overlook how much change can occur in the near future, as I’ve noticed upon rereading a blog post I wrote three years ago. I am someone who thinks with a huge imagination about what my “ideal” future would look like. As my English teacher pointed out this year, it doesn’t always work out, but is more a source of inspiration and self-motivation.
As much as I may strive for what I want, there still may be setbacks. I may overestimate how much I can learn or my physical capabilities. I may even overestimate how much time I have to do x. And with each of those types of mistakes I make, I’m sure part of that perfect world will begin to fall apart. But I still keep that ideal, perfect imaginary life in my head, just for in the case that I do manage to get there.
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